With the deadline for greenhouse gas reduction target submissions having passed, UN officials have declared international pledges insufficient to avoid 2 degrees’ temperature rise. Following the Copenhagen climate summit in December, emissions cuts were expected around the world in line with the Copenhagen Accord. Just 55 nations have submitted a reduction target, including the major industrialised nations like China and the US, yet these are not legally binding.
Looking at the global picture, 67 countries representing 77.3% of global emissions (according to the World Resources Institute) have engaged with the Copenhagen Accord or are deemed likely to engage. This includes the 27 EU member states who have submitted one umbrella emissions target as a group of nations.
Looking at the major emitters in more detail, the US stands in a difficult position with one of the highest per capita emissions in the world, 23.1tCO2. They have pledged a target of 17% absolute emission reductions by 2020, but unfortunately their baseline year for this 17% is 2005, which equates to less than 4% reductions on 1990 levels. Whereas the European Union has pledged significant cuts off a baseline of 1990 emissions levels, at 20% increasing to 30% subject to other nations’ commitments.
In contrast to this the Maldives, a small nation of low-lying islands with national emissions of 2.5tCO2 per capita, have pledged absolute emission reductions of 100% by 2020, submitting actions to the UN under the Copenhagen Accord.
Other countries like China and India, have submitted actions to the UN in adherence with the Copenhagen Accord, but instead of setting absolute reduction targets they have proposed emission intensity cuts from a recent baseline year (in India’s case) set against each unit of economic (or GDP) growth. In the context of a growing economy, this does not mean emission reductions but rather the acceptance of marginally less rapid emissions growth.
The commitment letters from all submitting countries are a positive step in the right direction for the international community. However the UN’s top climate adviser, Janos Pasztor, has declared that the collective goals make it “unlikely the world can prevent temperatures from rising above the target” 2 degrees warming.
In a commentary by the Guardian, Alden Meyer, policy director at the Union of Concerned Scientists, called the collective submissions “a breakthrough of sorts. This is the first time countries are committed to this goal, that's the good news," he said. "The bad news, of course, is the pledges that have been put on the table to date don't put us on track to meet that goal."
What we are left with is a gap between the required reduction target and those pledged by governments, which must now be filled by people and businesses voluntarily, if we are to tackle climate change seriously. We need to reduce emissions everywhere we can and continue to offset the remaining emissions through high quality offset programmes that make like-for-like reductions today.